A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
